Atlanta United 1-2 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 May 2024

Atlanta United
1-2 HT 0-0
Minnesota United
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs Minnesota United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.41
No
46%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.02
2-3 Goals
38%
2.19
4-5 Goals
28%
2.46
6+ Goals
15%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
11%
4.52
X/2
11%
10.4
X/X
9%
6.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
18.85
2/2
15%
6.35
2/X
7%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.85 — our 7% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.0pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.6pp
46%
BTTS No
33%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Minnesota United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +24%
2.01/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.67
+32% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.4 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atlanta United vs Minnesota United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Minnesota United
2.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
335 Passes 389
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2019 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-1 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABDK
30.05.2019 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-0 HT 1-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
01.04.2018 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-1 HT 0-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
04.10.2017 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-3 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
13.03.2017 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-6 HT 1-3 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 1-2 Minnesota United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
1-2
AWAY Minnesota United
1.77 xG 0.53
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 9
413 Passes 156
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
29 Box Touches 12
37 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United nicked a narrow win over Atlanta United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atlanta United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atlanta United had 69% of the ball to Minnesota United's 31%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.77 to 0.53 — on chances, Atlanta United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Atlanta United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.80 goals for Atlanta United and 1.00 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Minnesota United?

Atlanta United 1-2 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 49%, draw 21%, Minnesota United 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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