Toronto FC 3-1 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.77
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.47
X/2
13%
7.07
X/X
7%
4.72
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
15%
5.24
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.65 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.48/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.45
-15% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
13.7 Crosses 13.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Dallas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.66 xG 2.37
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
416 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 5
27.02.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
23.06.2019 FC Dallas FC Dallas 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
26.05.2018 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
02.07.2017 FC Dallas FC Dallas 3-1 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
08.05.2016 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
19.04.2015 FC Dallas FC Dallas 3-2 HT 3-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
3-1
AWAY FC Dallas
1.36 xG 0.41
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
477 Passes 353
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 14
9 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC saw off FC Dallas 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toronto FC as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 57% of the ball to FC Dallas's 43%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.36 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toronto FC and 1.83 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs FC Dallas?

Toronto FC 3-1 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 42%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toronto FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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