Homburg vs Mainz 05 II Prediction — Model Probabilities
Homburg v Mainz 05 II — Team-Based Signals
Homburg vs Mainz 05 II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Homburg 1-2 Mainz 05 II — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 II found just enough to beat Homburg 2-1 on the road. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Homburg at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (60%) landed.
On the day, possession split 51% to 49% in Homburg's favour, shots finished 13-10.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Homburg against 2.00 for Mainz 05 II.
Homburg vs Mainz 05 II Result & Final Score
Homburg 1 - 2 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Homburg vs Mainz 05 II Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Homburg 59%, draw 22%, Mainz 05 II 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.