Homburg 1-2 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.59
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-12.0pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.3pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.77/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/2.03
-10% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-4 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
30.04.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
21.10.2022 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
26.02.2022 Homburg Homburg 3-2 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
14.09.2021 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-2 HT 0-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
20.04.2021 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Homburg
1-2
AWAY Mainz 05 II
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II edged past Homburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Homburg had 51% of the ball to Mainz 05 II's 49%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Homburg and 2.00 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Mainz 05 II?

Homburg 1-2 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Homburg 45%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 II 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ BTTS Yes
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