Paderborn 07 II 1-1 Velbert — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.4pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.1pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn 07 II EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Velbert EU Bookmakers 20%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
2.41/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/2.51
+12% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn 07 II
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Velbert
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
10.11.2023 Velbert Velbert 2-2 HT 2-1 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Paderborn 07 II vs Velbert
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn 07 II and Velbert couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Paderborn 07 II at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Paderborn 07 II vs Velbert?

Paderborn 07 II 1-1 Velbert in the Germany - Regional League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn 07 II vs Velbert?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn 07 II win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 07 II 57%, draw 21%, Velbert 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn 07 II) ✗ BTTS No
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