St. Pauli II 1-2 Bremer SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.82
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+3.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.1pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.7pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli II EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bremer SV EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.11/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.09
-40% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli II
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Bremer SV
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
04.11.2023 Bremer SV Bremer SV 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
07.05.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-1 HT 0-0 Bremer SV Bremer SV ALMBÖL
30.10.2022 Bremer SV Bremer SV 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH St. Pauli II vs Bremer SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bremer SV squeezed past St. Pauli II 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was St. Pauli II at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, St. Pauli II had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Pauli II and 0.67 for Bremer SV.

What was the final score of St. Pauli II vs Bremer SV?

St. Pauli II 1-2 Bremer SV in the Germany - Regional League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli II vs Bremer SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli II win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli II 54%, draw 21%, Bremer SV 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Pauli II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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