Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportes Tolima v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
1-1
HT 1-1
Deportes Tolima
KOL
Deportes Tolima 1-3 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Medellin beat Deportes Tolima 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Deportes Tolima had 52% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 48%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.76 to 1.52.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.67 for Independiente Medellin.
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
Deportes Tolima 1-3 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 05/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 42%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.