Trans Narva 3-2 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.4pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
2.04/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.29
+4% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +43%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
1W-0D-5L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.04.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-1 HT 1-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
08.03.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
09.11.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
24.08.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 0-1 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
19.06.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
21.04.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 5-0 HT 5-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva edged past FC Kuressaare 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Kuressaare led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Trans Narva and 2.00 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

Trans Narva 3-2 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 53%, draw 24%, FC Kuressaare 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Over 2.5
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