Guadalajara 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 25% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.8pp
33%
Draw
25%
+7.7pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
Crosses 12.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.95
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
397 Passes 331
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara HAZ
29.07.2007 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara KAS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-2
AWAY Los Angeles Galaxy
1.76 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
415 Passes 445
89% Pass Accuracy 88%
32 Box Touches 11
34 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Los Angeles Galaxy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara and Los Angeles Galaxy shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 33% / 30% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Guadalajara had 49% of the ball to Los Angeles Galaxy's 51%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.76 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 1.50 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Guadalajara 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy in the Concacaf League Cup on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 37%, draw 33%, Los Angeles Galaxy 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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