Philadelphia Union 1-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
36%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.23
Over 2.5
45%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.53
No
56%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
4.54
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 33% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
31%
+6.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
36%
Away Win
45%
-9.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
41%
+13.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
59%
-13.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
61%
-17.5pp
56%
BTTS No
39%
+17.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 49%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.81/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/0.43
-25% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 42.0
29.0 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.47 xG 1.24
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
229 Passes 405
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union and Cruz Azul couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 39% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 61%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.47 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul?

Philadelphia Union 1-1 Cruz Azul in the Concacaf League Cup on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 38%, draw 27%, Cruz Azul 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CONLK More Concacaf League Cup
5 Aug 2024
03:00 Pachuca vs Toronto FC Analysis →
03:00 Orlando City vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
04:00 St. Louis vs FC Juarez Analysis →
05:30 Guadalajara vs Los Angeles Galaxy Analysis →
05:30 Seattle Sounders vs Necaxa Analysis →