Gine Bissau 1-0 Esvatini — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.45
Over 2.5
42%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.75
No
60%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
6.38
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
59%
-12.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
32%
+7.8pp
60%
BTTS No
68%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gine Bissau EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Esvatini EU Bookmakers 17%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.50/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.08
+124% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 72%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
12.9 Crosses 10.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gine Bissau
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Esvatini
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
26.03.2021 Esvatini Esvatini 1-3 HT 1-2 Gine Bissau Gine Bissau AFUK
13.11.2019 Gine Bissau Gine Bissau 3-0 HT 2-0 Esvatini Esvatini AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gine Bissau
1-0
AWAY Esvatini
0.75 xG 0.59
66% Ball Possession 34%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
496 Passes 218
91% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gine Bissau vs Esvatini
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gine Bissau edged past Esvatini 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gine Bissau as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Gine Bissau had 66% of the ball to Esvatini's 34%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.75 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gine Bissau had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Gine Bissau and 0.50 for Esvatini.

What was the final score of Gine Bissau vs Esvatini?

Gine Bissau 1-0 Esvatini in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gine Bissau vs Esvatini?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gine Bissau win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gine Bissau 46%, draw 29%, Esvatini 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gine Bissau), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gine Bissau) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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