Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 3-1 Lesotho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.19
No
65%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
5.68
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.2 — our 41% vs market 38.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.7pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.8pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.8pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.3pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lesotho EU Bookmakers 25%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.77/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/0.48
-44% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
Crosses 20.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti
3-1
AWAY Lesotho
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti vs Lesotho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti got the better of Lesotho 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti had 43% of the ball to Lesotho's 57%, shots finished 10-7.

What was the final score of Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti vs Lesotho?

Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 3-1 Lesotho in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti vs Lesotho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti 45%, draw 29%, Lesotho 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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