Tunus 1-0 Madagaskar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
3.06
No
63%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.59
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.56
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
29%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
73%
-12.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.0pp
19%
Away Win
7%
+11.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
28%
+8.4pp
63%
BTTS No
72%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tunus EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Madagaskar EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.33/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.74
+32% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +23%
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 203 · 70%
38.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.7
19.7 Crosses 11.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tunus
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Madagaskar
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.92 xG 0.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
374 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
11.07.2019 Madagaskar Madagaskar 0-3 HT 0-0 Tunus Tunus AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tunus
1-0
AWAY Madagaskar
1.08 xG 0.46
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
466 Passes 233
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
41 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tunus vs Madagaskar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tunus nicked a narrow win over Madagaskar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tunus as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Tunus had 64% of the ball to Madagaskar's 36%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.08 to 0.46.

What was the final score of Tunus vs Madagaskar?

Tunus 1-0 Madagaskar in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tunus vs Madagaskar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tunus win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tunus 60%, draw 21%, Madagaskar 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tunus), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tunus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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