Özbekistan 1-0 Kuzey Kore — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.37
Draw
31%
4.08
Away
23%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.6
No
61%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.59
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 35% vs market 32.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
21%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
68%
-22.3pp
31%
Draw
21%
+9.6pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
34%
+4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
66%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Özbekistan EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Kuzey Kore EU Bookmakers 14%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.97/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.04/0.91
+19% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -93% / +150%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Özbekistan
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Kuzey Kore
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
57% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
07.06.2019 Özbekistan Özbekistan 4-0 HT 1-0 Kuzey Kore Kuzey Kore HAZ
13.10.2018 Özbekistan Özbekistan 2-0 HT 1-0 Kuzey Kore Kuzey Kore HAZ
12.11.2015 Özbekistan Özbekistan 3-1 HT 1-1 Kuzey Kore Kuzey Kore DKE
10.01.2015 Özbekistan Özbekistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Kuzey Kore Kuzey Kore ASK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Özbekistan
1-0
AWAY Kuzey Kore
1.15 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
302 Passes 376
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Özbekistan vs Kuzey Kore
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Özbekistan nicked a narrow win over Kuzey Kore 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Özbekistan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Özbekistan had 47% of the ball to Kuzey Kore's 53%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.15 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Özbekistan had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Özbekistan and 0.25 for Kuzey Kore.

What was the final score of Özbekistan vs Kuzey Kore?

Özbekistan 1-0 Kuzey Kore in the World Cup Qualifiers on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Özbekistan vs Kuzey Kore?

Before kick-off our model rated a Özbekistan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Özbekistan 46%, draw 31%, Kuzey Kore 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Özbekistan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Özbekistan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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