Ebbsfleet United 2-2 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
41%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.0
Over 2.5
43%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.7
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 34% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.48
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
14%
7.59
X/2
12%
4.39
X/X
14%
5.14
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.56
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+4.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-8.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
46%
+10.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
54%
-10.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 53%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.13/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.51
-10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +135%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
202 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Rochdale
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 2-1 HT 1-1 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
05.08.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 0-1 HT 0-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
2-2
AWAY Rochdale
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
0 Passes 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ebbsfleet United and Rochdale shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 38% of the ball to Rochdale's 62%, shots finished 6-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ebbsfleet United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 0.50 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale?

Ebbsfleet United 2-2 Rochdale in the England - National League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 31%, draw 28%, Rochdale 40%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rochdale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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