Hartlepool United 4-3 Sutton United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 5 Oct 2024

Hartlepool United
4-3 HT 0-2
Sutton United
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - National League – 2024/2025

Hartlepool United vs Sutton United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 33% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.98
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
17%
5.45
X/2
11%
5.26
X/X
16%
4.1
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
15%
3.79
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartlepool United v Sutton United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sutton United EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.10/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.22
-21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
198 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 65%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Hartlepool United vs Sutton United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartlepool United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sutton United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.59 xG 1.46
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
327 Passes 180
72% Pass Accuracy 60%
15 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.02.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-2 HT 2-2 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
17.09.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 2-0 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
19.02.2022 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-1 HT 0-1 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
14.09.2021 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
23.05.2021 Sutton United Sutton United 3-0 HT 1-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
30.01.2021 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 1-0 HT 0-0 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL

Hartlepool United 4-3 Sutton United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartlepool United
4-3
AWAY Sutton United
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
3 Passes 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hartlepool United vs Sutton United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartlepool United squeezed past Sutton United 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Hartlepool United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hartlepool United had 53% of the ball to Sutton United's 47%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sutton United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hartlepool United and 1.50 for Sutton United.

What was the final score of Hartlepool United vs Sutton United?

Hartlepool United 4-3 Sutton United in the England - National League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartlepool United vs Sutton United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartlepool United win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hartlepool United 37%, draw 31%, Sutton United 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartlepool United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartlepool United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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