Alfreton Town 0-0 Hereford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.74
Over
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.9
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
21%
4.03
6+
9%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.9 — our 30% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.66/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.36
+10% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Hereford FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.03.2024 Hereford FC Hereford FC 3-3 HT 1-3 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
24.10.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
11.02.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
03.09.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
02.04.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-2 HT 0-2 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
23.10.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-3 HT 2-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
0-0
AWAY Hereford FC
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Hereford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town and Hereford FC fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Alfreton Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 50% of the ball to Hereford FC's 50%, shots finished 8-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.50 for Hereford FC.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Hereford FC?

Alfreton Town 0-0 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Hereford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 44%, draw 27%, Hereford FC 30%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Alfreton Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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