Chorley 1-1 Warrington Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
31%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.07
Over
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No Pick
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.86
2-3
40%
1.83
4-5
23%
3.18
6+
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.86 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
62%
-16.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.3pp
31%
Away Win
17%
+13.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
2.20/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.76
+20% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Warrington Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Warrington Town Warrington Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
19.08.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-1 HT 0-1 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
1-1
AWAY Warrington Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Warrington Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley and Warrington Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Chorley at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Chorley had 52% of the ball to Warrington Town's 48%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Warrington Town led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chorley and 1.50 for Warrington Town.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Warrington Town?

Chorley 1-1 Warrington Town in the England - Conference on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Warrington Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Chorley 46%, draw 23%, Warrington Town 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ BTTS No
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