Welling United 1-3 Weston-super-Mare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.25
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.63
6+ Goals
7%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 30% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-3.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.0pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.45/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.10
+12% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Welling United Welling United 3-1 HT 1-0 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare İCON
02.12.2023 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 4-2 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
1-3
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
50% Ball Possession 50%
3 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weston-super-Mare got the better of Welling United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Weston-super-Mare found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Welling United had 50% of the ball to Weston-super-Mare's 50%, shots finished 3-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Welling United and 2.50 for Weston-super-Mare.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Welling United 1-3 Weston-super-Mare in the England - Conference on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Welling United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Welling United 38%, draw 25%, Weston-super-Mare 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Welling United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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