Welling United 3-1 Weston-super-Mare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 29% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
36%
+6.6pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.5pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 42%
-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.25/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.25
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
275 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.12.2023 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 4-2 HT 1-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
3-1
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Welling United beat Weston-super-Mare 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Welling United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Welling United had 45% of the ball to Weston-super-Mare's 55%, shots finished 13-12.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Welling United 3-1 Weston-super-Mare in the England - Conference on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Welling United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Welling United 43%, draw 21%, Weston-super-Mare 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Welling United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Welling United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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