Queen Of The South 1-5 Kelty Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.43
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.46
6+ Goals
13%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queen Of The South EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.78/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/2.04
+12% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queen Of The South
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Kelty Hearts
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
06.04.2024 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 1-2 HT 0-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
10.02.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İK1
18.11.2023 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 1-3 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
30.09.2023 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 3-1 HT 1-1 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İK1
06.05.2023 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South 4-1 HT 2-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
18.02.2023 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 3-0 HT 0-0 Queen Of The South Queen Of The South İK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queen Of The South
1-5
AWAY Kelty Hearts
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
5 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queen Of The South vs Kelty Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kelty Hearts swept aside Queen Of The South 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Kelty Hearts found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Queen Of The South had 41% of the ball to Kelty Hearts's 59%, shots finished 7-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kelty Hearts led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Queen Of The South and 2.00 for Kelty Hearts.

What was the final score of Queen Of The South vs Kelty Hearts?

Queen Of The South 1-5 Kelty Hearts in the Scotland - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queen Of The South vs Kelty Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queen Of The South win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Queen Of The South 37%, draw 27%, Kelty Hearts 36%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Queen Of The South) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Queen Of The South) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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