Dumbarton 1-3 Stenhousemuir — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.0
Over 2.5
42%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 31% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.6pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Stenhousemuir EU Bookmakers 28%
-18% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
1.31/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.77
-21% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dumbarton
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Stenhousemuir
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
30.03.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-0 HT 0-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
03.02.2024 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 1-0 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
09.12.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
26.08.2023 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 2-4 HT 0-4 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
01.04.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-2 HT 1-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
28.02.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-0 HT 1-0 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir İK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dumbarton
1-3
AWAY Stenhousemuir
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 12
3 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Dumbarton vs Stenhousemuir
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stenhousemuir got the better of Dumbarton 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Dumbarton at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dumbarton had 49% of the ball to Stenhousemuir's 51%, shots finished 7-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stenhousemuir led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dumbarton and 1.00 for Stenhousemuir.

What was the final score of Dumbarton vs Stenhousemuir?

Dumbarton 1-3 Stenhousemuir in the Scotland - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dumbarton vs Stenhousemuir?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dumbarton win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dumbarton 43%, draw 27%, Stenhousemuir 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dumbarton) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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