Burton Albion 1-3 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.95
Over
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.54
2-3
40%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.38
6+
12%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.39
1/2
10%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
14%
5.3
X/2
13%
5.96
X/X
11%
4.72
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.0
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.19/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.07
-16% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
244 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 72%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.6 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 0.93
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
186 Passes 350
62% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.02.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-2 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
21.10.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 4-1 HT 2-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
18.02.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.08.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-4 HT 0-4 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
02.03.2021 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
17.10.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-3
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.70 xG 1.64
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 5
388 Passes 199
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers got the better of Burton Albion 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Bristol Rovers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 61% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 39%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.70 to 1.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Burton Albion and 1.33 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Bristol Rovers?

Burton Albion 1-3 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 37%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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