Bristol Rovers 1-2 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 10 Feb 2024

Bristol Rovers
1-2 HT 0-1
Burton Albion
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
58%
1.91
Over
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No Pick
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
32%
3.45
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
18%
3.38
6+
9%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.45 — our 32% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.01
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
15.15
X/1
25%
3.79
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
12%
5.16
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
8%
8.42
2/X
6%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.7pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol Rovers v Burton Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 21%
-24% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.11/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.48
-51% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 66%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.3 Crosses 13.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Burton Albion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
322 Passes 210
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 4-1 HT 2-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
18.02.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.08.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-4 HT 0-4 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
02.03.2021 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
17.10.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
31.08.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Burton Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
1-2
AWAY Burton Albion
0.51 xG 1.12
68% Ball Possession 32%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 1
364 Passes 118
74% Pass Accuracy 50%
20 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion nicked a narrow win over Bristol Rovers 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bristol Rovers at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 68% of the ball to Burton Albion's 32%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.51 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.67 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion?

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 51%, draw 25%, Burton Albion 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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