Barnsley 2-1 Leyton Orient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.8
Over 2.5
39%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 33% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.21
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
11%
13.15
X/1
14%
4.86
X/2
14%
6.05
X/X
11%
4.38
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.38
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.5pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
0.91/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.22
+1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
295 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 69%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.7 Crosses 18.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Leyton Orient
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.24 xG 1.58
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
383 Passes 368
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
21.10.2023 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
17.03.2015 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
20.12.2014 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 2-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
2-1
AWAY Leyton Orient
2.57 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
373 Passes 199
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Leyton Orient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley squeezed past Leyton Orient 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Barnsley found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barnsley had 62% of the ball to Leyton Orient's 38%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.57 to 0.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Barnsley's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Barnsley had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Barnsley and 0.33 for Leyton Orient.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Leyton Orient?

Barnsley 2-1 Leyton Orient in the England - 1st Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Leyton Orient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 38%, draw 28%, Leyton Orient 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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