Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 34% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.57
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.5
X/1
21%
3.95
X/2
11%
7.55
X/X
10%
4.51
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
10%
6.26
2/X
7%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Barrow win — 48%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.8pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.13/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.04
-9% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
263 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 67%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
18.8 Crosses 17.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.82
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
154 Passes 356
58% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
19.12.2020 Barrow Barrow 3-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
06.02.2016 Barrow Barrow 1-2 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İBSL
22.08.2015 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
2-1
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.74 xG 0.39
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 1
343 Passes 141
72% Pass Accuracy 50%
15 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow edged past Cheltenham Town 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barrow as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barrow had 63% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 37%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.74 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Barrow and 1.00 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Cheltenham Town?

Barrow 2-1 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Barrow 48%, draw 26%, Cheltenham Town 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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