Notts County 0-1 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.57
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.7
X/2
14%
5.74
X/X
14%
5.02
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
20%
3.6
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +19%
1.71/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.97
-5% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
247 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 68%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
24.7 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Port Vale
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
02.03.2019 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
03.11.2018 Port Vale Port Vale 2-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
01.01.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
02.09.2017 Port Vale Port Vale 0-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
21.07.2015 Port Vale Port Vale 2-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County HAZ
28.02.2015 Notts County Notts County 0-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
0-1
AWAY Port Vale
1.19 xG 1.26
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
576 Passes 184
91% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 13
51 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale edged past Notts County 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Port Vale made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Notts County had 72% of the ball to Port Vale's 28%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.19 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Notts County and 0.83 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Port Vale?

Notts County 0-1 Port Vale in the England - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Notts County 34%, draw 26%, Port Vale 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Vale), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5
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