Accrington Stanley 2-1 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.56
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 24% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.86
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
16%
4.74
X/2
10%
6.93
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
16%
4.89
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.57/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.64
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
367 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 67%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
23.7 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Morecambe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.86 xG 1.20
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
309 Passes 161
73% Pass Accuracy 59%
30 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-2 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
03.10.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
29.12.2022 Morecambe Morecambe 2-0 HT 2-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
01.10.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-1 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
29.01.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-2 HT 2-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
25.09.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-3 HT 2-2 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
2-1
AWAY Morecambe
2.06 xG 0.35
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
170 Passes 132
54% Pass Accuracy 52%
18 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley nicked a narrow win over Morecambe 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Accrington Stanley as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 55% of the ball to Morecambe's 45%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 2.06 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Accrington Stanley's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.83 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe?

Accrington Stanley 2-1 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 42%, draw 27%, Morecambe 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Accrington Stanley), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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