Accrington Stanley 1-2 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.08
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.07
6+ Goals
15%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.65
X/1
13%
5.02
X/2
14%
6.66
X/X
10%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
11%
4.41
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.61/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.59
+0% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
279 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 65%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
22.9 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Morecambe
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.79 xG 1.25
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
319 Passes 155
73% Pass Accuracy 57%
30 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
29.12.2022 Morecambe Morecambe 2-0 HT 2-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
01.10.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-1 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
29.01.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-2 HT 2-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
25.09.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-3 HT 2-2 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
27.07.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 0-2 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
1-2
AWAY Morecambe
2.24 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
260 Passes 192
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe squeezed past Accrington Stanley 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Accrington Stanley at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 57% of the ball to Morecambe's 43%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.24 to 0.95 — on chances, Accrington Stanley could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.50 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe?

Accrington Stanley 1-2 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 42%, draw 26%, Morecambe 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Accrington Stanley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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