Gnistan 2-2 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.3
X/2
9%
9.35
X/X
14%
5.82
2/1
10%
20.9
2/2
7%
6.4
2/X
6%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 26%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
1.61/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.52
-19% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
27.1 Crosses 18.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
1W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Lahti
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.72 xG 0.66
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
242 Passes 289
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.06.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-3 HT 1-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
02.06.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
17.02.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-2
AWAY FC Lahti
1.13 xG 1.06
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
408 Passes 228
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 26
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan and FC Lahti shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gnistan at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gnistan had 60% of the ball to FC Lahti's 40%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.13 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gnistan and 2.00 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs FC Lahti?

Gnistan 2-2 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 52%, draw 26%, FC Lahti 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5
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