FC Lahti 3-3 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Jun 2024

📅19/06/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.42
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
15%
6.25
X/2
14%
5.08
X/X
7%
4.31
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
24%
3.29
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.5pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.0pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -60% / -60%
1.59/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.12
+24% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
19.6 Crosses 24.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Lahti
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Gnistan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.74 xG 1.71
45% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
280 Passes 274
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
17.02.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Lahti
3-3
AWAY Gnistan
0.58 xG 1.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
298 Passes 211
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Lahti vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Lahti and Gnistan couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gnistan at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Lahti had 57% of the ball to Gnistan's 43%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.58 to 1.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Lahti and 1.50 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of FC Lahti vs Gnistan?

FC Lahti 3-3 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Lahti vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Lahti 34%, draw 23%, Gnistan 43%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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