Cardiff MU 1-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +1%
1.38/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.57
-13% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
38% Ball Possession 62%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
23.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
13.01.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
21.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town squeezed past Cardiff MU 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff MU at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cardiff MU and 2.17 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Cardiff MU 1-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff MU win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 44%, draw 27%, Caernarfon Town 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cardiff MU), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff MU) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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