Caernarfon Town 1-2 Cardiff MU — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.82/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.53
+17% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cardiff MU
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
23.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
10.02.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
13.01.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
21.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
29.10.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU nicked a narrow win over Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.17 for Cardiff MU.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Cardiff MU in the Wales - Premier League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Cardiff MU?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 46%, draw 26%, Cardiff MU 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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