Libertad 2-0 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.23/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.06
+24% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
278 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.9 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Orense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
223 Passes 316
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.07.2025 Orense Orense 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.03.2025 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
19.10.2024 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
01.10.2023 Orense Orense 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-0
AWAY Orense
3.94 xG 1.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
252 Passes 297
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad got the better of Orense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Libertad had 47% of the ball to Orense's 53%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 3.94 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Orense.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Orense?

Libertad 2-0 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Libertad 45%, draw 26%, Orense 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5
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