Orense 0-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 13 Jul 2025

Orense
0-1 HT 0-1
Libertad
📅13/07/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Ecuador - Premier – 2025

Orense vs Libertad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
60%
-11.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.6pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orense v Libertad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.23/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.53
-25% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 71%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.8 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Orense vs Libertad Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
291 Passes 232
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.03.2025 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
19.10.2024 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
01.10.2023 Orense Orense 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1

Orense 0-1 Libertad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
0-1
AWAY Libertad
1.66 xG 1.41
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
437 Passes 175
85% Pass Accuracy 64%
48 Box Touches 15
35 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orense vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over Orense 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Orense at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Orense had 66% of the ball to Libertad's 34%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.66 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Orense had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Orense and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Orense vs Libertad?

Orense 0-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Orense 49%, draw 25%, Libertad 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Orense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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