Lille 1-1 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Oct 2025

Lille
1-1 HT 0-0
PSG
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Lille vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
2.15
Over
43%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.54
No
50%
2.31
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
33%
4.13
2-3
38%
1.85
4-5
20%
2.92
6+
9%
8.77
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.13 — our 33% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.01
1/2
10%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
10%
7.48
X/2
17%
5.12
X/X
14%
5.21
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
15%
2.77
2/X
7%
12.15
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Lille v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG The Market 49%
+22% / +39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.38/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.41
+32% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +19%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 479 · 84%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
13.2 Crosses 12.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lille vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSG
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
1.54 xG 2.69
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
396 Passes 487
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
22 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.03.2025 PSG PSG 4-1 HT 4-0 Lille Lille FR1
01.09.2024 Lille Lille 1-3 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1
10.02.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
17.12.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.02.2023 PSG PSG 4-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
21.08.2022 Lille Lille 1-7 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1

Lille 1-1 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-1
AWAY PSG
0.46 xG 1.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
317 Passes 600
82% Pass Accuracy 92%
30 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Lille vs PSG
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lille and PSG traded blows to a 1-1 standstill. Half-time: 0-0.

A gentle 42% lean on PSG didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. Small consolation: at 2.03 (roughly 49%) the price was further off than we were. Nothing to argue with on goals either — under 2.5 goals (57%) came home.

Under the surface, Lille had 38% of the ball to PSG's 62%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.46 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lille and 3.67 for PSG.

Lille vs PSG Result & Final Score

Lille 1-1 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lille vs PSG Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lille 30%, draw 28%, PSG 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (PSG) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Under 2.5
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