Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities
Lyon v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals
Lyon vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Lyon 1-2 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics
Toulouse found just enough to beat Lyon 2-1 on the road. The 1-0 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.
A gentle 51% lean on Lyon didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.
Under the surface, Lyon had 69% of the ball to Toulouse's 31%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.17 to 1.18.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lyon and 0.83 for Toulouse.
Lyon vs Toulouse Result & Final Score
Lyon 1-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lyon 51%, draw 23%, Toulouse 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.