Lyon 1-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.78
Over
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.98
2-3
40%
1.75
4-5
20%
3.71
6+
10%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.75
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
19%
4.64
X/2
10%
7.5
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
11%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.77
2/X
5%
14.2
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse The Market 29%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +19%
1.76/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.62
+52% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.7 Crosses 14.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.36 xG 1.32
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
448 Passes 344
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.01.2025 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.09.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
15.03.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
10.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.04.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.10.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-2
AWAY Toulouse
1.17 xG 1.18
69% Ball Possession 31%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
504 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Lyon vs Toulouse
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toulouse found just enough to beat Lyon 2-1 on the road. The 1-0 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

A gentle 51% lean on Lyon didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.

Under the surface, Lyon had 69% of the ball to Toulouse's 31%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.17 to 1.18.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lyon and 0.83 for Toulouse.

Lyon vs Toulouse Result & Final Score

Lyon 1-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lyon 51%, draw 23%, Toulouse 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5
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