Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.61
No
40%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.6pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fukushima United EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
1.56/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.26
+23% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.0 Crosses 19.5
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fukushima United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
231 Passes 496
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.06.2025 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 1-1 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
27.07.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 1-1 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
17.03.2024 Fukushima United Fukushima United 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
12.11.2023 Fukushima United Fukushima United 1-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
16.07.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 1-1 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
10.09.2022 Fukushima United Fukushima United 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fukushima United
1-0
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
373 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fukushima United squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Fukushima United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fukushima United had 52% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 48%, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fukushima United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fukushima United and 0.83 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fukushima United 34%, draw 28%, Matsumoto Yamaga 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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