Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fukushima United EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.49/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.24
+4% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Fukushima United
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.03.2024 Fukushima United Fukushima United 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
12.11.2023 Fukushima United Fukushima United 1-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
16.07.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 1-1 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
10.09.2022 Fukushima United Fukushima United 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
17.07.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Fukushima United Fukushima United JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Fukushima United
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Fukushima United shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 46% of the ball to Fukushima United's 54%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.80 for Fukushima United.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United in the Japan - J3 League on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 44%, draw 25%, Fukushima United 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ BTTS No
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