Smiltene 0-3 Tukums II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2025

Smiltene
0-3
Tukums II
📅05/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2025

Smiltene vs Tukums II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.64
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
17%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
Over 2.5
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.43
No
47%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
27%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
57%
+8.3pp
18%
Draw
23%
-5.6pp
17%
Away Win
20%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
66%
-12.2pp
47%
BTTS No
34%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smiltene v Tukums II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Tukums II EU Bookmakers 23%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.93/2.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/2.06
+29% / -66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
363 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Smiltene vs Tukums II Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Tukums II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
3 Corners 0
The Meetings
24.05.2025 Tukums II Tukums II 1-2 HT 0-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
25.08.2024 Tukums II Tukums II 1-2 HT 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
28.04.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-1 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
16.09.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 0-3 HT 0-2 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
14.05.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 2-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tukums II cruised past Smiltene 3-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Smiltene carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tukums II led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smiltene and 1.80 for Tukums II.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Tukums II?

Smiltene 0-3 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Tukums II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smiltene win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 65%, draw 18%, Tukums II 17%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Smiltene), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Smiltene) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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