Rosenborg 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.46
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
29%
2.71
6+ Goals
11%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.23
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
22%
4.66
X/2
7%
9.03
X/X
9%
6.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.4
2/2
11%
6.1
2/X
9%
14.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.4 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+1.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.4pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosenborg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.55/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.50
-3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.7 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosenborg
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.74 xG 2.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
375 Passes 369
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2025 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-2 HT 1-2 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
25.06.2025 Rosenborg Rosenborg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
23.11.2024 Rosenborg Rosenborg 1-1 HT 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
12.07.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 4-1 HT 3-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
08.10.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 5-2 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
25.06.2023 Rosenborg Rosenborg 0-3 HT 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosenborg
2-3
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
3.51 xG 1.77
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
439 Passes 251
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 edged past Rosenborg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Rosenborg carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rosenborg had 62% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 38%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 3.51 to 1.77 — on chances, Rosenborg could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rosenborg and 2.67 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08?

Rosenborg 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosenborg win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Rosenborg 55%, draw 23%, Sarpsborg 08 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rosenborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rosenborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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