Rosenborg 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 23 Nov 2024

Rosenborg
1-1 HT 0-0
Sarpsborg 08
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.46
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
29%
2.71
6+ Goals
14%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.93
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
15%
4.08
X/2
9%
11.35
X/X
10%
6.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.85
2/2
6%
7.76
2/X
6%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.7pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rosenborg v Sarpsborg 08 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosenborg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.77/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.60
+4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.8 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosenborg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.49 xG 2.13
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
349 Passes 377
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.07.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 4-1 HT 3-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
08.10.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 5-2 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
25.06.2023 Rosenborg Rosenborg 0-3 HT 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
13.11.2022 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-3 HT 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
18.04.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-1 HT 1-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
19.09.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-2 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR

Rosenborg 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosenborg
1-1
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.50 xG 0.62
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
456 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rosenborg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Rosenborg had 60% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 40%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.50 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rosenborg and 2.83 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08?

Rosenborg 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosenborg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Rosenborg 51%, draw 24%, Sarpsborg 08 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rosenborg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rosenborg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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