Lilleström 0-3 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 23 Nov 2024

Lilleström
0-3 HT 0-1
Sandefjord
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Lilleström vs Sandefjord Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.71
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
13%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.95
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
17%
4.89
X/2
10%
6.91
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
16%
4.78
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.5 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lilleström v Sandefjord — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -13%
1.50/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.67
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
25.0 Crosses 17.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Lilleström vs Sandefjord Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sandefjord
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.08
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
305 Passes 348
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 0-1 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.02.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-2 HT 0-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
03.12.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-0 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.07.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 4-2 HT 3-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
21.08.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 3-0 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
21.05.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-4 HT 1-3 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Lilleström 0-3 Sandefjord — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
0-3
AWAY Sandefjord
2.30 xG 2.39
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
387 Passes 356
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sandefjord ran out comfortable winners over Lilleström 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lilleström at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lilleström had 52% of the ball to Sandefjord's 48%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.30 to 2.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lilleström had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lilleström and 1.00 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Sandefjord?

Lilleström 0-3 Sandefjord in the Norway - Eliteserien on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 45%, draw 23%, Sandefjord 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lilleström), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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