FC Sochi 2-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.68
Over
50%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.81
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
23%
4.28
6+
10%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.9
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.62
X/2
10%
7.08
X/X
10%
4.28
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
16%
5.6
2/X
7%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 6% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod The Market 30%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.43/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.61
+17% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.8 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.03 xG 0.65
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
401 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.07.2025 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi HAZ
31.05.2025 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 HT 0-3 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
28.05.2025 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 1-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
12.05.2024 FC Sochi FC Sochi 6-1 HT 2-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
29.10.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
22.05.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 4-0 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Sochi nicked a narrow win over Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Sochi as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pari Nizhny Novgorod led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Sochi and 1.67 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

FC Sochi 2-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod in the Russia - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Sochi win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 45%, draw 24%, Pari Nizhny Novgorod 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Sochi), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Sochi) ✓ BTTS Yes
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