FK Orenburg 0-1 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.95
Over
42%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.59
2-3
43%
1.84
4-5
17%
3.43
6+
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.59 — our 32% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.71
1/2
9%
23.55
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
13%
7.7
X/2
21%
4.62
X/X
12%
5.03
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
12%
2.61
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
26%
+6.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-6.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov The Market 52%
+7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.67/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.15/1.45
+29% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -18%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
252 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.9
22.9 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Rostov
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.62 xG 2.53
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
236 Passes 340
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 41
20 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
18.09.2024 Rostov Rostov 3-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
28.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
17.08.2024 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 0-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
29.04.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
06.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
0-1
AWAY Rostov
0.72 xG 0.97
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
272 Passes 170
72% Pass Accuracy 62%
16 Box Touches 36
21 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 58% of the ball to Rostov's 42%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.72 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.00 for Rostov.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Rostov?

FK Orenburg 0-1 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 33%, draw 26%, Rostov 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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