Rostov 3-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.0
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 29% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-6.0pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 19%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
3.00/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.49
+59% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.39 xG 1.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
352 Passes 241
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
36 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
17.08.2024 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 0-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
29.04.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
06.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
10.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
23.11.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
3-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rostov vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov got the better of FK Orenburg 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rostov had 52% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 48%, shots finished 19-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Rostov and 1.67 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Rostov 3-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Cup on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Rostov 57%, draw 23%, FK Orenburg 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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