FK Orenburg 1-2 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.97
6+ Goals
14%
8.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.19
1/2
8%
21.4
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
12%
7.63
X/2
16%
4.85
X/X
8%
5.57
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
19%
2.59
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+7.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-5.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 52%
+12% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.93/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.12
+46% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
24.4 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Rostov
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.57 xG 2.39
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
241 Passes 352
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 36
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2024 Rostov Rostov 3-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
28.08.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
17.08.2024 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 0-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
29.04.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
06.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
10.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-2
AWAY Rostov
1.34 xG 2.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
275 Passes 216
71% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 45
32 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov edged past FK Orenburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 54% of the ball to Rostov's 46%, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 1.34 to 2.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.00 for Rostov.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Rostov?

FK Orenburg 1-2 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 36%, draw 21%, Rostov 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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