Progreso 2-0 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
43%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.30/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.07
-1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cerro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Cerro Cerro 0-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
14.09.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Cerro URU
01.03.2024 Cerro Cerro 2-3 HT 2-1 Progreso Progreso URU
10.09.2022 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
07.02.2021 Cerro Cerro 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
16.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
2-0
AWAY Cerro
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso saw off Cerro 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Progreso as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Progreso had 51% of the ball to Cerro's 49%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 1.00 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro?

Progreso 2-0 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Progreso 49%, draw 26%, Cerro 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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