Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-1 Al Rayyan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 5 Nov 2024

📅05/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.25
1/2
10%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
11%
4.86
X/2
12%
5.95
X/X
14%
4.66
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.3
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Rayyan EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.08/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.70
-48% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -35%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
29.0 Crosses 10.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
0-1
AWAY Al Rayyan
1.07 xG 0.21
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
465 Passes 221
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Rayyan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Rayyan squeezed past Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Al Rayyan found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Pakhtakor Tashkent had 65% of the ball to Al Rayyan's 35%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.07 to 0.21 — on chances, Pakhtakor Tashkent could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Rayyan?

Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-1 Al Rayyan in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Rayyan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pakhtakor Tashkent win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pakhtakor Tashkent 38%, draw 24%, Al Rayyan 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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