Aubagne 1-1 Rouen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.51
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
4.33
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 33% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.52
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
11%
6.06
X/2
11%
5.28
X/X
19%
4.0
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
18%
3.65
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
33%
+1.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aubagne EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rouen EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -14%
1.49/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.96
+25% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
258 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aubagne
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Rouen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.01.2025 Rouen Rouen 0-1 HT 0-1 Aubagne Aubagne FR3
23.08.2024 Aubagne Aubagne 2-1 HT 0-1 Rouen Rouen FR3
POST-MATCH Aubagne vs Rouen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aubagne and Rouen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aubagne had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aubagne and 0.50 for Rouen.

What was the final score of Aubagne vs Rouen?

Aubagne 1-1 Rouen in the France - National League 1 on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Rouen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aubagne win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 35%, draw 30%, Rouen 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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