Dijon 4-1 Valenciennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 32% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.64
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
13%
4.35
X/2
7%
7.97
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
11%
6.65
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
49%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.9pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dijon EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 27%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.01/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.09
-33% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dijon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Valenciennes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 350
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.03.2025 Dijon Dijon 2-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
23.10.2024 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-0 HT 2-0 Dijon Dijon FR3
25.02.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-2 HT 0-0 Dijon Dijon FR2
13.01.2023 Dijon Dijon 2-1 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
12.03.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 0-0 HT 0-0 Dijon Dijon FR2
24.09.2021 Dijon Dijon 0-1 HT 0-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dijon
4-1
AWAY Valenciennes
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dijon vs Valenciennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dijon ran out comfortable winners over Valenciennes 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dijon as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dijon had 59% of the ball to Valenciennes's 41%, shots finished 14-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dijon and 1.17 for Valenciennes.

What was the final score of Dijon vs Valenciennes?

Dijon 4-1 Valenciennes in the France - National League 1 on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dijon vs Valenciennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dijon win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Dijon 52%, draw 25%, Valenciennes 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dijon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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